MAY JON BRYAN

Physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the case of the Valle Peligna region

This PhD project aims to develop a physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PB-PSHA) for the Sulmona region in central Italy, using the Mt. Morrone fault as the earthquake source. The study will use a large ensemble of physics-based simulations to model ground motions across a range of earthquake magnitudes and rupture scenarios. The suite of simulations will include variations in earthquake source characteristics, such as slip distribution and nucleation location, as well as the local subsurface structure, including the Sulmona sedimentary basin. The simulations will target a maximum frequency in the range of 5–10 Hz. The simulation results will be combined within a probabilistic framework to produce seismic hazard maps and related hazard information for the region.